How should taxes be set?

Fiscal policy ; Taxation

On the contribution of technology shocks to business cycles

This article contends that the various measures of the contribution of technology shocks to business cycles calculated using the real business cycle modeling method are not corroborated. The article focuses on a different and much simpler method for calculating the contribution of technology shocks, which takes account of facts concerning the productivity/labor input correlation and the variability of labor input relative to output. Under several standard assumptions, the method predicts that the contribution of technology shocks must be large (at least 78 percent), that the labor supply elasticity need not be large to explain the observed fluctuation in labor input, and that the contribution of technology shocks can be estimated fairly precisely. The method also estimates that the contribution of technology shocks could be lower than 78 percent under alternative assumptions. ; Reprinted in the Quarterly Review, Summer 1997 (v. 21, no. 3)Business cycles ; Technology

Explaining financial market facts: the importance of incomplete markets and transaction costs

In this article, I suggest that incomplete markets and transaction costs are crucial for explaining the high equity premium and the low risk-free rate. I first demonstrate the failure of the complete frictionless markets model in explaining these return puzzles and then show how introducing incomplete markets and transaction costs can lead to success. Additionally, I explain how these features lead to predictions concerning individual consumptions, wealths, portfolios, and asset market transactions that are in better agreement with the facts than the predictions of the complete frictionless markets model.Interest rates

Economic fluctuations without shocks to fundamentals; or, does the stock market dance to its own music?

Stock - Prices ; Stock market

Intergenerational linkages and government budget policies

Saving and investment ; Social security ; Fiscal policy

Response to a defense of zero inflation

This essay distills the differences between zero inflation proponents and critics to three main questions: Can the central bank make a credible commitment to maintaining a stable price level? Should monetary policy be used to reduce the tax on capital income? And would reducing uncertainty about inflation produce significant social benefits? Proponents of zero inflation answer all three questions yes, while critics answer no. The essay reviews both answers for each question and suggests that the disagreements are at least partly due to inadequacies in economic models. The essay repeats the author's view, argued in an earlier study, that when other policy options are considered, the overall benefits of a zero inflation policy shrink close to zero, and may even become negative.Inflation (Finance)

Deflating the case for zero inflation

This paper analyzes the U.S. congressional proposal to instruct the Federal Reserve to, in the next five years, lower inflation to zero from its current rate of around 5 percent. The paper concludes that, when other policy options are considered, the zero inflation policy is not advisable. Its benefits would be very small--possibly negative--while its costs would probably be significant. Other, more direct policy options could produce most of the same benefits with fewer costs. Among these alternative policies are deregulating interest rates on demand deposits, paying interest on financial institution reserves, lowering the federal tax rate on capital income, and indexing the federal tax code to inflation. ; Reprinted in Quarterly Review, v. 21, no. 3, Summer 1997.Inflation (Finance)

Macroeconomics with frictions

This article is a progress report on research that attempts to include one type of market incompleteness and frictions in macroeconomic models. The focus of the research is the absence of insurance markets in which individual-specific risks may be insured against. The article describes some areas where this type of research has been and promises to be particularly useful, including consumption and saving, wealth distribution, asset markets, business cycles, and fiscal policies. The article also describes work in each of these areas that was presented at a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in the fall of 1993. ; Reprinted in the Quarterly Review, Summer 1997 (v. 21, no. 3)Macroeconomics

The optimum quantity of debt

We find that the welfare gains to being at the optimum quantity of debt rather than the current U.S. level are small, and, therefore, concerns regarding the high level of debt in the U.S. economy may be misplaced. This finding is based on a model of a large number of infinitely-lived households whose saving behavior is influenced by precautionary saving motives and borrowing constraints. This model incorporates a different role for government debt than is found in standard models, and it captures different cost-benefit trade-offs. On the benefit side, government debt enhances the liquidity of households by providing an additional means of smoothing consumption and by effectively loosening borrowing constraints. On the cost side, the implied taxes have adverse wealth distribution and incentive effects. In addition, government debt crowds out capital via higher interest rates and lowers per capita consumption.Debt